THE
$1,000,000,
000,000
QUESTION
Why are Americans spending more when they feel worse?
The mood and the money have come apart.
Consumer sentiment printed its second-lowest reading on record. In the same eleven days, three houses forecast the largest holiday season America has ever had.
Feeling worse is the rational read.
Wages rose 3.1% over the year. Prices rose 3.4%. The average worker’s purchasing power went backwards.
Core inflation fell. Fuel prices still hit the household every week.
A record season.
Not one economy.
Holiday sales are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time, with growth landing unevenly.
Clothing just passed groceries.
WHAT IT
CHANGES
IN THE PLAN
Give the highest-value cohort a compelling reason to trade up.
Create a value lane that gives price-sensitive shoppers a reason to stay.
Avoid one blended campaign trying to speak to everyone at once.
Your customer may never start on your website.
0of online shoppers say they will begin this holiday season inside an AI assistant.
Traffic is no longer a reliable proxy for intent.
Mobile carries 75% of traffic, social drove 29% more visits, and cart abandonment sits at 82%.
Affordability is the cultural backdrop.
Not a political position. The room every holiday campaign is launching into.
